High resource reserves were estimated by consulting companies in 2009 - Advanced Resources International (3 billion cubic metres) and Wood McKenzie (1.4 billion cubic metres). The United States Geological Survey sees the potential of the shale gas in our country differently, according to which the extracted resources are only 38.1 milliard cubic metres. Between these two estimates lies an estimate prepared by the National Geological Institute, considered as the most probable for the size of the shale gas resources in Poland, which acknowledges the range between 346 and 768 of cubic metres.
Just to compare, the documented deposits of the unconventional resources are approximately 145 milliard cubic metres and the annual consumption of the blue fuel is about 14.5.
The most optimistic forecast concerning shale gas resources in Poland was published in April 2011 by the Energy Information Administration which is an analytical and statistical branch of the American Department of Energy. According to the report by EIG (http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/pdf/fullreport.pdf) which evaluated the potential of the shale gas resources in 32 countries, the largest resources are in Poland and can amount to 5.3 billion cubic metres of gas. EIA estimates raise concerns due to the optimistic assumptions and questionable geological grounds.
In March 2012, the first analysis in Poland was prepared - a report by the National Geological Institute (PIG) on shale gas resources in the Baltic-Podlasie-Lubelskie basin (http://www.pgi.gov.pl/pl/component/docman/doc_download/771-raport-pl.html). According to the PIG estimates the extractable resource from the shale formations stretching from Pomerania to Lublin may amount to 1.92 billion cubic metres at most, and the most probable amount ranges from 346 to 768 milliard cubic metres. The report was prepared using the analysis of the archive data from 39 bore holes performed between 1950 and 1990. PIG plans to update its report after studying samples from the drills performed in Poland.
In the report published in July 2012 the United States Geological Survey estimated the shale gas resource stretching from Pomerania to Lublin area at 38.1 milliard cubic metres (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2012/3102/fs2012-3102.pdf). The USGS analysis was based on samples taken from 56 drills performed before 1990 and referred to the analogous American estimates of the resources.